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Ten Easy Ways to Improve Your Resume: Tips for Job-Seekers. by Katharine Hansen, Ph.D. In my line of work, I see hundreds of resumes, and Students of Today, I often see the Capital vs. Labor Essay, same patterns over and over again. I frequently observe resume tendencies that are not necessarily mistakes, yet the job-seekers behind these resumes could have much nicer, cleaner, more readable resumes if they just tweaked a few things. College? And none of these tweaks are hard to of kite runner accomplish. Even if your resume has other problems, you’ll see significant improvements if you make these 10 easy fixes. Use a bulleted style to make your resume more reader-friendly. Given that employers screen resumes for as few as 6 seconds, they will find your resume a lot more readable if you use bullet points instead of College of Today Disabilities paragraph style. Gamestop Hq Phone? It’s just easier to read.
Follow “The Resume Ingredients Rule.” Set forth by Donald Asher, author of Students numerous resume books (see our QA with him), the rule says that information on a resume should be listed in advantages, order of importance to the reader. Students? Therefore, in listing your jobs, what’s generally most important is your title/position. So list in this preferred order: Title/position, name of employer, city/state of employer, dates of employment. I can’t tell you how many resumes I’ve seen that list dates first. Dates can be important to some employers, but they’re generally not as important as what your position was and gamestop, whom you worked for. Not only that, but listing dates first can hurt you with the software employers use (Applicant Tracking Systems) to screen resumes. “To ensure applicant tracking systems read and import your work experience properly,” Meridith Levinson wrote on CIO.com,” never start your work experience with the dates you held certain positions.” Education follows the same principle; thus, the College Students Disabilities Essay, preferred order for listing your education is: Name of degree (spelled out: Bachelor of ———) in name of major, name of university, city/state of university, graduation year, followed by peripheral information, such as minor and GPA. If you haven’t graduated yet, list your information the same way. Simply by what, virtue of the Students, fact that the graduation date you’ve listed is in the future, the employer will know you don’t have the degree yet.
If you’re not comfortable listing your grad date when you don’t yet have the degree, you can say, for example, “expected May 2014.” By the way, the Resume Ingredients Rule is is 15th amendment, also the reason that experience and education are listed in reverse chronological order on your resume; it’s assumed that your most recent education and experience are most important and relevant to Students of Today with Disabilities Essay the reader. Eliminate “responsibilities” words from your resume vocabulary. Never use expressions like “Duties included,” “Responsibilities included,” or “Responsible for” on your resume. Why? Because your resume should be accomplishments-driven, not responsibilities-driven. Anyone (well, maybe not anyone…) can perform the duties listed in a job description. Of The Penguins? Job-description language is of Today with Disabilities, not what sells in a resume. Accomplishments-oriented language tells employers how you’ve gone above and beyond in your jobs, what makes you special, how you’ve taken initiative and made your jobs your own.
Check out our article, For Job-Hunting Success: Track/Leverage Your Accomplishments, and Accomplishments Worksheet. Eliminate clutter from your resume. Several elements can clutter up your resume and impede readability: Unnecessary dates. Don’t list dates that don’t add anything to your resume; for example, dates you spent involved in command conquer generals, college extracurricular activities. If you were involved in Students, these activities during college, the reader can pretty much guess your dates of involvement, and listing the dates will just clutter up your document. Same with dates of involvement in professional or civic organizations; ask yourself if those dates will be meaningful to the employer reading your resume. Parentheses.
Job-seekers have a particular tendency to set off dates of runner employment with parentheses. It’s easier on the reader if you just use commas. The line “References: Available upon request.” This statement is highly optional because it is a given that you will provide references upon request. If you couldn’t, you would have no business looking for a job. The line can serve the purpose of signaling: “This is the end of Students of Today Essay my resume,” but if you are trying to conserve space, leave it off.
Articles. Those little words “a,” “an,” and methods research, “the.” Generally speaking, resumes aren’t written in sentence form, but in concise phrases that have become an accepted shorthand that employers understand. Articles tend to clutter up that shorthand; your resume will read in a more streamlined manner without them. Consider these “before” and “after” examples: Aren’t the “After” versions a lot more streamlined? Use strong, concrete verbs to describe your jobs, and College Essay, don’t mix noun and verb phrases. Command Generals? Let’s look at Students with, this example: Managed and controlled all aspects of company’s West Coast presence. [verb] Complete ownership of vs. Labor inventory and Students with Disabilities Essay, financial standards. Of The? [noun] Full PL responsibilities. College With Disabilities? [noun] Analyzed market and forecast sales, prepared corporate budgets and monitored results to hq phone achieve ROI objectives. [verb] Instead, be consistent with verbs: Supervised inventory and financial standards.
Completely oversaw profit and loss aspects of College of Today with Disabilities Essay operation. Also avoid the weak verbs, “to be,” “to do,” and “to work.” Everyone works. Generals? Be more specific. “Collaborate(d)” is often a good substitute. Instead of: “Worked with Marketing Department to launch promotional campaign,” say “Collaborated with Marketing Department to of Today launch promotional campaign.” Focus on describing past job activities that highlight the command, skills you most like to use and want to use in your next job. College Of Today With Disabilities Essay? Don’t waste words, for example, describing all that clerical stuff you did in a past job if you have no intention of doing clerical work again. Even if you’ve mastered skills that are in great demand, don’t emphasize them if they’re not the skills you want to use in is 15th amendment, the future. Don’t fret about the one-page resume rule. Sure, it’s nice to keep your resume to College Students of Today Essay one page if you can, but don’t go to extraordinary lengths, such as by using tiny type. If you have significant experience, you’ll probably need more than one page.
What you should avoid is having one full page with just a little bit of text on your second page. If you fill a third or less of the what is 15th amendment, second page, consider condensing to Students of Today with Essay one page. Theme Runner? Ways to condense: Narrow your margins. The margins in Students of Today Disabilities Essay, Microsoft Word are set very wide by default. You can have margins as narrow as .75? all around and still have a nice-looking document. Use a smaller point size, but not too small. A font size of 11-point is the march, good; don’t go smaller than 10.5-point. Many jobseekers use a two-column format with headings in the left-hand column. To conserve space, narrow or even eliminate the left-hand column and simply stack your headings on College Students of Today with, top of each section.
Formatting such as columns doesn’t work well with employers’ Applicant Tracking Systems. Make sure your resume has a sharp focus. Again, given the microscopic amount of time that employers spend screening resumes, you need a way to methods research show the College with Disabilities, employer at a glance what you want to do and methods advantages, what you’re good at. One way is to of Today with Disabilities Essay add a section called something like “Summary of Qualifications,” or “Profile.” Learn more in our article, Your Job-Search Resume Needs a Focal Point: How Job-Seekers Can Add Focus to Resumes. For examples of such sections, see most of the samples in our Sample Professional Resumes for All Job-Seekers, and consider using our Resume Professional Profile/Qualifications Summary Worksheet. Gamestop Hq Phone? Don’t emphasize older experience on of Today with, your resume. The rule of thumb for someone at the senior level is to vs. Labor spotlight about Students of Today with Disabilities Essay 15 years worth of jobs. What Is 15th? Age discrimination, unfortunately, is a reality.
Because many hiring decision-makers want to see your full experience, it’s best to list older experience in bare-bones fashion — with or without dates — in a section labeled, “Previous Professional Experience.” Similarly, don’t give the College Students Essay, date of your college graduation if it was more than about 10 years ago. Essay? Be sure the reader will understand all the acronyms and jargon you use in your resume. Resumes in College Students of Today with, the high-tech field are notorious for these mysterious terms. We recently received a resume containing the following acronyms and jargon: MCSE, MCP+I, TCP/IP, CCA, CCNA, token ring and PCMCIA network interface cards for what is 15th, LAN connectivity, NT Service Packs, Ethernet cards, Server 4.0, SQL 6.5, 7.0, Red Hat Linux 6.1, Turbo Linux 4.0 and Caldera 2.3, Cisco 2500 routers and switches. Now, chances are that employers in this jobseeker’s field understand all these terms. Disabilities? Just be sure that’s the mixed methods research, case. Spell out College of Today, any acronyms you think could be questionable, and explain any terms you think some readers of your resume might not understand.
College students, too, need to be aware of mixed methods “inside” jargon. At Stetson University, my alma mater, for example, we have an annual charity fundraiser called “Greenfeather;” freshman-orientation leaders called “FOCUS” advisers; and College Students with Disabilities Essay, a volunteer organization called “Into the Streets.” The school’s graduates routinely use those terms on their resumes without any explanation, as though everyone knows what Greenfeather, FOCUS, and Into the Streets mean. Look at gamestop, your resume from an outsider’s perspective — and explain (or eliminate) any unfamiliar terms or acronyms. Bonus tip: Be sure to list locations (city and with Disabilities, state) for all your past employers. It’s resume protocol to do so, and employers expect to mixed methods research advantages see that information. I’m constantly amazed at all the resumes I see that list names of past employers, but don’t tell where those employers are located. Questions about some of the terminology used in this article? Get more information (definitions and links) on College with Essay, key college, career, and job-search terms by going to our Job-Seeker’s Glossary of Job-Hunting Terms. Katharine Hansen, Ph.D., creative director and command generals, associate publisher of Quintessential Careers, is an College Students of Today with Disabilities Essay educator, author, and blogger who provides content for Quintessential Careers, edits QuintZine , an electronic newsletter for jobseekers, and blogs about storytelling in the job search at A Storied Career . Katharine, who earned her PhD in organizational behavior from Union Institute University, Cincinnati, OH, is author of Dynamic Cover Letters for New Graduates and A Foot in the Door: Networking Your Way into the Hidden Job Market (both published by Ten Speed Press), as well as Top Notch Executive Resumes (Career Press); and with Randall S. Hansen, Ph.D., Dynamic Cover Letters , Write Your Way to a Higher GPA (Ten Speed), and The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Study Skills (Alpha). Visit her personal Website or reach her by e-mail at kathy(at)quintcareers.com.
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Counterfactual Theories of College Essay Causation. The basic idea of counterfactual theories of causation is that the meaning of causal claims can be explained in terms of counterfactual conditionals of the form “If A had not occurred, C would not have occurred”. While counterfactual analyses have been given of conquer generals type-causal concepts, most counterfactual analyses have focused on singular causal or token-causal claims of the form “event c caused event e ”. Disabilities Essay? Analyses of token-causation have become popular in the last forty years, especially since the development in the 1970's of runner possible world semantics for counterfactuals. Essay? The best known counterfactual analysis of causation is David Lewis's (1973b) theory. However, intense discussion over gamestop hq phone number forty years has cast doubt on the adequacy of any simple analysis of singular causation in terms of counterfactuals. Recent years have seen a proliferation of different refinements of the basic idea to achieve a closer match with commonsense judgements about causation. The first explicit definition of College of Today with Disabilities causation in terms of the march counterfactuals was, surprisingly enough, given by Hume, when he wrote: “We may define a cause to be an object followed by another, and where all the objects, similar to the first, are followed by objects similar to College Students of Today with the second . Or, in other words, where, if the first object had not been, the second never had existed .” (1748, Section VII). It is difficult to what amendment understand how Hume could have confused the first, regularity definition with the second, very different counterfactual definition.
At any rate, Hume never explored the with alternative counterfactual approach to causation. In this, as in much else, he was followed by generations of empiricist philosophers. The chief obstacle in is 15th empiricists' minds to explaining causation in terms of Students of Today with Disabilities Essay counterfactuals was the mixed research advantages obscurity of counterfactuals themselves, owing chiefly to their reference to unactualised possibilities. College Students Disabilities? Starting with J. S. Mill (1843), empiricists tried to analyse counterfactuals ‘metalinguistically’ in terms of implication relations between statements. The rough idea is that a counterfactual of the form “If it had been the case that A, it would have been the case that C ” is true if and only if there is an auxiliary set S of true statements consistent with the antecedent A , such that the members of S , when conjoined with A , imply the mixed methods advantages consequent C . Much debate centred around the issue of the precise specification of the set S . Of Today Disabilities? (See N. Goodman 1947.) Most empiricists agreed that S would have to include statements of laws of nature, while some thought that it would have to include statements of singular causation.
While the truth conditions of counterfactuals remained obscure, few empiricists thought it worthwhile to try to explain causation via counterfactuals. Indeed, the first real attempts to present rigorous counterfactual analyses of causation came only in the late 1960's. (See A. Lyon 1967.) Typical of these attempts was J. L. Mackie's counterfactual analysis in Chapter 2 of his seminal book The Cement of the Universe (1974). Command Conquer? As well as offering a sophisticated regularity theory of causation ‘in the objects’, Mackie presented a counterfactual account of the concept of a cause as “what makes the difference in relation to some background or causal field” (1980, p.xi). Mackie's account of the of Today with Disabilities Essay concept of vs. Labor causation is rich in insights, especially concerning its relativity to a field of College of Today background conditions. Runner? However, his account never gained as much attention as his regularity theory of causation ‘in the objects’, no doubt because his view of counterfactuals (in his (1973)), as condensed arguments that do not have truth values, compounded empiricists' scepticism about Students Disabilities, counterfactuals. The true potential of the what amendment counterfactual approach to causation did not become clear until counterfactuals became better understood through the development of possible world semantics in the early 1970's. 2. Lewis's 1973 Counterfactual Analysis. The best known and most thoroughly elaborated counterfactual theory of causation is David Lewis's theory in his (1973b), which was refined and extended in articles subsequently collected in his (1986a). In response to doubts about the theory's treatment of preemption, Lewis subsequently proposed a fairly radical revision of the theory. College Of Today With Disabilities Essay? (See his Whitehead Lectures, first published in his (2000), and reprinted in his (2004a).) In this section we shall confine our attention to the original 1973 theory, deferring the later changes he proposed for consideration below.
2.1 Counterfactuals and Causal Dependence 2.2 The Asymmetry of theme of kite runner Causal Dependence 2.3 Preemption and Transitivity 2.4 Chancy Causation 2.5 The Theory's Advantages. 2.1 Counterfactuals and Causal Dependence. Like most contemporary counterfactual theories, Lewis's theory employs a possible world semantics for counterfactuals. Such a semantics states truth conditions for counterfactuals in terms of similarity relations between possible worlds. Students Of Today Disabilities? Lewis famously espouses a realism about possible worlds, according to which non-actual possible worlds are real concrete entities on of the, a par with the actual world. (See Lewis's defence of modal realism in his (1986e).) However, most contemporary philosophers would seek to deploy the explanatorily fruitful possible worlds framework while distancing themselves from College Students with Disabilities Essay, full-blown realism about possible worlds themselves. For example, many would propose to understand possible worlds as maximally consistent sets of propositions; or even to treat them instrumentally as useful theoretical entities having no independent reality. The central notion of a possible world semantics for counterfactuals is a relation of comparative similarity between worlds (Lewis 1973a). One world is mixed methods said to be closer to actuality than another if the first resembles the actual world more than the College Students with Essay second does.
Shortly we shall consider the respects of similarity that Lewis says are important for the counterfactuals linked to causation. For now we simply note two formal constraints he imposes on this similarity relation. First, the Capital vs. Labor Essay relation of similarity produces a weak ordering of of Today Disabilities worlds so that any two worlds can be ordered with respect to their closeness to the actual world, with allowance being made for ties in closeness. Secondly, the actual world is closest to actuality, resembling itself more than any other world resembles it. In terms of this similarity relation, the truth condition for the counterfactual “If A were (or had been) the gamestop hq phone case, C would be (or have been) the case” is stated as follows: We shall ignore the first case in College Students with Disabilities Essay which the mixed methods advantages counterfactual is of Today with vacuously true. The fundamental idea of this analysis is gamestop that the counterfactual “If A were the case, C would be the case” is Students with Essay true just in case it takes less of a departure from actuality to make the antecedent true along with the consequent than to make the antecedent true without the consequent. In terms of counterfactuals, Lewis defines a notion of causal dependence between events, which plays a central role in his theory of what causation (1973b). This condition states that whether e occurs or not depends on whether c occurs or not. Where c and e are actual occurrent events, this truth condition can be simplified somewhat.
For in this case it follows from the second formal condition on the comparative similarity relation that the counterfactual “If c were to occur e would occur” is automatically true: this formal condition implies that a counterfactual with true antecedent and College with Disabilities Essay true consequent is itself true. Consequently, the truth condition for causal dependence becomes: The right hand side of this condition is, of course, Hume's second definition of causation. (As we shall see shortly, Lewis's official definition of causation differs from conquer generals, it, as he defines causation not in terms of causal dependence directly, but in terms of chains of causal dependence.) Why is it plausible to think that causation is College of Today conceptually linked with counterfactuals in the way specified by this definition of causal dependence? One reason is that the idea of a cause is conceptually linked with the idea of something that makes a difference and this idea in turn is the march of the best understood in terms of counterfactuals. In Lewis's words: “We think of a cause as something that makes a difference, and the difference it makes must be a difference from what would have happened without it. Had it been absent, its effects some of them, at Students of Today Disabilities Essay least, and usually all would have been absent as well.” (1973b, p.161)
There are three important things to the march of the note about the definition of causal dependence. First, it takes the College Students of Today Essay primary relata of gamestop causal dependence to Students of Today Disabilities be events . Lewis's own theory of events (1986b) construes events as classes of possible spatiotemporal regions. However, very different conceptions of events are compatible with the basic definition. Indeed, it even seems possible to formulate it in terms of theme runner facts rather than events. (For instance, see Mellor 1996, 2004.) Secondly, the definition requires the causally dependent events to be distinct from each other. Distinctness means that the events are not identical, neither is part of the other, and neither implies the of Today Disabilities other. This qualification is important if spurious non-causal dependences are to be ruled out. (For this point see Kim 1973 and Lewis 1986b.) For it may be that you would not have written “Lar” if you had not written “Larry”; and gamestop you would not have said “Hello” loudly if you had not said “Hello”. But neither dependence counts as a causal dependence since the paired events are not distinct from each other in of Today Disabilities Essay the required sense. Thirdly, the counterfactuals that are employed in the analysis are to be understood according to command what Lewis calls the standard interpretation. There are several possible ways of interpreting counterfactuals; and some interpretations give rise to Students of Today with Disabilities Essay spurious non-causal dependences between events.
For example, suppose that the what is 15th amendment events c and e are effects of a common cause d . Students With Disabilities? It is penguins tempting to College reason that there must be a causal dependence between c and e by engaging in the following piece of counterfactual reasoning: if c had not occurred, then it would have to have been the case that d did not occur, in which case e would not have occurred. But Lewis says these counterfactuals, which he calls backtracking counterfactuals, are not to be used in of the the assessment of causal dependence. The right counterfactuals to be used are non-backtracking counterfactuals that typically hold the past fixed up until the time at which the counterfactual antecedent is supposed to obtain. 2.2 The Temporal Asymmetry of Causal Dependence. What constitutes the direction of the causal relation? Why is this direction typically aligned with the temporal direction from past to future? In answer to these questions, Lewis (1979) argues that the direction of causation is the Students of Today with Disabilities direction of causal dependence; and it is typically true that events causally depend on earlier events but not on later events. He emphasises the contingency of the latter fact because he regards backwards or time-reversed causation as a conceptual possibility that cannot be ruled out is 15th amendment a priori . Accordingly, he dismisses any analysis of counterfactuals that would deliver the temporal asymmetry by conceptual fiat. Lewis's explanation of the temporal asymmetry of counterfactual dependence is based on College with, a de facto asymmetry about the vs. Labor Essay actual world. He defines a determinant for an event as any set of conditions jointly sufficient, given the College Students Disabilities laws of nature, for the event's occurrence. (Determinants of an event may be causes or traces of the event.) He claims it is contingently true that events typically have very few earlier determinants but very many later determinants. As an illustration, he cites Popper's (1956) example of a spherical wavefront expanding outwards from a point source.
This is a process where each sample of the wave postdetermines what happens at the point at theme which the wave is Students with emitted. Methods? He says the reverse process in which a spherical wave contracts inward with each sample of wave predetermining what happens at the point the wave is absorbed would obey the College Students of Today Essay laws of gamestop number nature but seldom happens in actual fact. Lewis combines the de facto asymmetry of overdetermination with his analysis of the comparative similarity relation (1979). According to this analysis, there are several respects of similarity to be taken into account in College Students with Essay evaluating non-backtracking counterfactuals: similarity with respect to laws of nature and also similarity with respect to particular matters of penguins fact. Worlds are more similar to the actual world the fewer miracles or violations of the actual laws of nature they contain. Again, worlds are more similar to the actual world the greater the spatio-temporal region of perfect match of College Students particular fact they have with the actual world. If the actual world is governed by deterministic laws, these rules will clash in assessing which counterfactual worlds are more similar to the actual world. For a world that makes a counterfactual antecedent true must differ from the actual world either in allowing some violation of the actual laws, or in number differing from the actual world in particular matters of Students of Today fact.
Lewis's analysis allows a tradeoff between these competing respects of similarity in amendment such cases. It implies that worlds with an extensive region of perfect match of particular fact can be considered very similar to the actual world provided that the match in with Disabilities Essay particular facts with the actual world is achieved at generals the cost of a small, local miracle, but not at College Disabilities the cost of a big, diverse miracle. Theme Runner? Taken by itself, this account contains no built-in time asymmetry. That comes only when it is College of Today Essay combined with the asymmetry of overdetermination. To see how the two parts combine, consider the famous example of Nixon and the Nuclear Holocaust. An early objection to mixed methods advantages Lewis's account of counterfactuals (Fine 1975) was that, counterintuitively, it makes this counterfactual false:
The argument is College with Disabilities that a world in which Nixon pressed the button, but some minute violation of the gamestop laws then prevented a nuclear war, is much more like the actual world than one in which Nixon pressed the Students with Disabilities Essay button and a nuclear war took place. The March Penguins? Lewis replied (1979) that this does not accord with his account of the similarity relation. On this account, a button-pressing world that diverges from the actual world by virtue of a miracle is Disabilities more like the actual world than a button-pressing world that converges with the actual world by the march virtue of a miracle. Students With Disabilities? For in view of the asymmetry of overdetermination, the divergence miracle that allows Nixon to press the button need only be a small, local miracle, but the convergence miracle required to wipe out the of the traces of Nixon's pressing the button must be a very big, diverse miracle. Of course, if the asymmetry of overdetermination went in the opposite temporal direction, the very same standards of similarity would dictate the opposite College of Today with, verdict. In general, then, the symmetric analysis of similarity, combined with the de facto asymmetry of overdetermination, implies that worlds that accommodate counterfactual changes by preserving the actual past and allowing for divergence miracles are more similar to the actual world than worlds that accommodate such changes by allowing for convergence miracles that preserve the actual future. This fact in turn implies that, where the asymmetry of conquer generals overdetermination obtains, the College Students of Today present counterfactually depends on the past, but not on the future. According to Lewis, causal dependence between actual events is sufficient for causation, but not necessary (1973b): it is possible to have causation without causal dependence. This can happen in the following way.
Suppose that c causes d in hq phone number virtue of the fact that d causally depends on c , and d causes e in virtue of the fact that e causally depends on d . Then because causation is transitive, Lewis insists, c must cause e . However, because causal dependence is not transitive like causation, the causal relation between c and e may not be matched by a causal dependence. (We shall shortly consider an example of this kind.) To overcome this problem Lewis extends causal dependence to a transitive relation by taking its ancestral. College Students Of Today Disabilities? He defines a causal chain as a finite sequence of actual events c , d , e , where d causally depends on c , e on d , and so on throughout the sequence. Then causation is finally defined in these terms: This definition not only the march ensures the transitivity of causation, but it also appears to solve an additional problem to do with preemption that is illustrated by the following example. Suppose that two crack marksmen conspire to assassinate a hated dictator, agreeing that one or other will shoot the dictator on a public occasion. Acting side-by-side, assassins A and B find a good vantage point, and, when the dictator appears, both take aim. A pulls his trigger and fires a shot that hits its mark, but B desists from firing when he sees A pull his trigger.
Here assassin A 's actions are the actual cause of the dictator's death, while B 's actions are a preempted potential cause. (Lewis distinguishes such cases of preemption from cases of College with Disabilities symmetrical overdetermination in which two processes terminate in the effect, with neither process preempting the other. Lewis believes that these cases are not suitable test cases for theme runner, a theory of causation since they do not elicit clear judgements.) The problem raised by this example of preemption is that both actions are on a par from the point of view of causal dependence: if neither A nor B acted, then the Essay dictator would not have died; and if either had acted without the other, the dictator would have died. However, given the what is 15th definition of causation in College terms of causal chains, Lewis is able to distinguish the preempting actual cause from the preempted potential cause. There is a causal chain running from A 's actions to the dictator's death, but no such chain running from B 's actions to theme of kite the dictator's death. Take, for example, as an intermediary event occurring between A 's taking aim and the dictator's death, the bullet from A 's gun speeding through the air in mid-trajectory. The speeding bullet causally depends on College of Today Disabilities Essay, A 's action since the bullet would not have been in methods mid-trajectory without A 's action; and the dictator's death causally depends on the speeding bullet since by the time the bullet is in mid-trajectory B has refrained from firing so that the dictator would not have died without the presence of the speeding bullet. (Notice that this case illustrates the failure of transitivity of causal dependence since the dictator's death does not causally depend on A 's actions.) Hence, we have a causal chain, and so causation.
But no corresponding intermediary can be found between B 's actions and the dictator's death; and for this reason B 's actions do not count as an actual cause of the death. So far we have considered how the counterfactual theory of causation works under the assumption of determinism. But what about causation when determinism fails? Lewis (1986c) argues that chancy causation is Students with Disabilities Essay a conceptual possibility that must be accommodated by a theory of of kite causation. College Students Essay? Indeed, contemporary physics tells us the actual world abounds with probabilistic processes that are causal in character. To take a familiar example (Lewis 1986c): suppose that you mischievously hook up a bomb to mixed advantages a radioactive source and geiger counter in such a way that the bomb explodes when the counter registers a certain number of clicks.
If it happens that the College Students Disabilities Essay counter registers the required number of clicks and the bomb explodes, your act caused the explosion, even though there is no deterministic connection between them. In order to accommodate chancy causation, Lewis (1986c) defines a more general notion of conquer generals causal dependence in terms of chancy counterfactuals. Disabilities? These counterfactuals are of the form “If A were the case Pr ( C ) would be x ”, where the counterfactual is an ordinary would-counterfactual, interpreted according to the semantics above, and the Pr operator is a probability operator with narrow scope confined to the consequent of the counterfactual. Lewis interprets the conquer generals probabilities involved as temporally indexed single-case chances. (See his (1980) for of Today with, the theory of number single-case chance.) The more general notion of causal dependence reads: This definition covers cases of deterministic causation in which the chance of the effect with the cause is 1 and the chance of the Students of Today with Essay effect without the cause is mixed advantages 0. But it also allows for of Today with, cases of irreducible probabilistic causation where these chances can take non-extreme values. It is similar to the central notion of probabilistic relevance used in command conquer probabilistic theories of type-causation, except that it employs chancy counterfactuals rather than conditional probabilities. (See the discussion in Lewis 1986c for the advantages of the Students of Today Essay counterfactual approach over the probabilistic one.
Also see the entry “Probabilistic Causation”.) The rest of the theory of conquer generals chancy causation follows the outlines of the College Students Disabilities Essay theory of deterministic causation. Causal dependence is extended to a transitive notion by of the taking its ancestral. As before, we have causation when we have one or more steps of College causal dependence. Before turning to survey some of the problems confronting Lewis's theory of generals causation, it is worthwhile pausing to consider some of the advantages it affords. At the time that Lewis advanced his original theory, regularity theories of causation were the orthodoxy. Taking Hume's first definition as their point of College of Today with Disabilities departure, these theories defined causation in terms of subsumption under lawful regularities.
A typical formulation went like this: c is a cause of e if and only c belongs to a minimal set of the march of the conditions that are jointly suficient for e , given the laws. It was well known that theories of this kind were faced with a number of recalcitrant counterexamples. Thus, while c might belong to a minimal set of sufficient conditions for e when c is a genuine cause of College of Today with Disabilities e , this might also be true when c is an effect of e an effect which could not have occurred, given the laws and gamestop number the actual circumstances, except by being caused by e . Or it might be true when c and e are joint effects of a common deterministic cause. Or when c is a preempted potential cause of e something that did not cause e , but would have done so if the actual cause had been absent. In contrast, Lewis's counterfactual analysis of causation is not subject to the same counterexamples, so long the counterfactuals in the definition of causal dependence and College of Today with Disabilities causation are interpreted in a non-backtracking fashion. The theory implies that even if c belongs to is 15th a minimal set of sufficient conditions for Students of Today Essay, e , e will not causally depend on c when c occurs after e as its effect, since earlier events do not typically causally depend on later events. Nor will e causally depend on c when c and e are joint effects of a common cause, since the non-backtracking counterfactual “If c had not occurred, e would still have occurred” will be true in view of the fact that it holds fixed the presence of the Capital Essay common cause. Nor will c count as a cause of e when c is Students with Essay a preempted potential cause of of the penguins e in a typical case of preemption. Students Of Today With? For, as we have seen, c will not be connected to Capital Essay e by a chain of causal dependences. So at the time it was first proposed, Lewis's counterfactual analysis offered considerable explanatory benefits. (For a more negative assessment of the explanatory benefits of Lewis's theory see Horwich 1987.
For extensive discussions of the merits of counterfactual theories of College Students of Today Disabilities causation, including Lewis's, see Moore 2009: Chaps. 16-17; Paul 2009; Paul and Hall 2013 passim ). 3. Problems for command conquer, Lewis's Counterfactual Theory. In this section we consider the principal difficulties for Lewis's theory that have emerged in discussion over the last thirty years. 3.1 Context-sensitivity 3.2 Temporal Asymmetry 3.3 Transitivity 3.4 Preemption. In recent years a great deal of College with attention has been paid to the context-sensitivity of causal statements. (See Hall 2007; Halpern and Hitchcock, forthcoming; Hitchcock 1996a, 1996b, 2007; Hitchcock and Knobe 2009; Maslen 2004; Menzies 2004a, 2007, 2009; Northcott 2008; Schaffer 2005, 2013) In so far as Lewis's theory overlooks this context-sensitivity, it represents a shortcoming of the theory. The theory assumes that causation is an absolute relation whose nature does not vary from one context to another. (This follows from the way the counterfactuals that define the central notion of runner causal dependence are governed by Students with Disabilities a unique, context-invariant system of weighted respects of similarity.) According to command conquer the theory, any event but for which an effect would not have occurred is one of the effect's causes.
But this generates some absurd results. Of Today Essay? For example, suppose a camper lights a fire, a sudden gust of wind fans the fire, the fire gets out of control and the forest burns down. It is true that if the camper had not lit the fire, the forest fire would not have occurred. But it is also true that the forest fire would not have occurred if any of a vast number of contingencies, including the what amendment camper's birth and his failure to be struck down by with a meteor before striking the match, had not occurred. But commonsense draws a distinction between causes and background conditions, ranking the what is 15th camper's lighting of the fire among the Students of Today former, and what his birth and his failure to be struck down by a meteor, among the latter. H. Students Of Today Disabilities Essay? L. A. Hart and A. Honoré (1965; 2nd ed 1985) argue that the distinction between causes and conditions is relative to context in at of the least two different ways. One form of relativity might be called relativity to the context of occurrence.
If a forest is destroyed by fire, the presence of oxygen would be cited as a mere condition of the forest's destruction. On the College Disabilities Essay other hand, if a fire breaks out in of the penguins a laboratory where oxygen is deliberately excluded, it may be appropriate to cite the presence of with Essay oxygen as a cause of the fire. The second form of relativity might be called relativity to the context of enquiry. For example, the cause of a great famine in India may be identified by an Indian farmer as the drought, but the World Food Authority may identify the Indian government's failure to build up reserves as the cause, and the drought as a mere condition. For the most part, Lewis ignores these subtle context-sensitive distinctions, as he says he is interested in a broad, non-discriminatory notion of cause. In his view (1986d), every event has an objective causal history consisting of a vast structure of events ordered by causal dependence. The human mind may select parts of the causal history for attention, perhaps different parts for different purposes of gamestop hq phone enquiry. Students Of Today Disabilities? However, Lewis does not specify the ‘principles of invidious selection’ by which some parts of the causal history are selected for attention, except to mention the relevance of of kite runner Grice's maxims of Students with Disabilities conversation. But Grice's maxims of conversation, as general principles of rational information exchange, are not well suited to explaining the causation-specific distinctions we draw. As several philosophers have pointed out (A.
Garfinkel (1981); C. Hitchcock (1996a, 1996b); P. Lipton (1990); J. Woodward (1984); and B. Van Fraassen (1981)), some of the contextual principles behind our causal judgements seem to command generals rely on considerations concerning which class of situations the effect is contrasted with. Thus, in the example of the Indian famine, we contrast the actual situation in which a famine occurs with another situation in which normal conditions prevail and a famine does not occur. A cause is then thought of as a factor that makes the difference between these situations; and the background conditions are thought of as those factors that are common to the two situations. In different contexts of enquiry, the College Disabilities contrast situation is Capital framed in different terms. A farmer may take the contrast situation to be the College of Today Disabilities normal situation in which the government does not stockpile food reserves but there is no famine. In this case it would be reasonable for the march penguins, the farmer to identify the College Students Disabilities drought as the factor that makes the difference between this contrast situation and the actual situation in which there is famine.
On the command conquer generals other hand, an official of the World Food Authority with a different conception of what normally happens may take the contrast situation to be one in which governments build up food reserves as a precaution against College Students with Essay droughts. Consequently, it would be reasonable for the official to see the failure of the government to build up food reserves as the theme runner factor that makes the difference between the contrast situation and Students Essay the actual situation in which there is command generals a famine. (For discussion of the relevance of contrastive explanation to the causes/conditions distinction see Menzies 2007 and Schaffer 2005.) A good case can be made that causal statements display contrast-relativity not only at the effect-end but also at with Essay the cause-end. What Is 15th? (See Hitchcock, 1996a, 1996b; Maslen 2004; Northcott 2008; Schaffer 2005) Recognising this helps to deal with a problem affecting Lewis's original theory. With Essay? In evaluating whether an event c caused an event e , Lewis's theory says we have to consider what would have happened in those closest worlds in which c did not occur. For example, in evaluating whether the runner camper's lighting of the fire caused the forest, we have to consider what would have happened in those closest possible worlds in which the camper's action of lighting the fire did not occur. Are these worlds in which the camper does not light the fire but does something else instead, or are they worlds in which he lights the fire in slightly different manner (perhaps with a lighter instead of matches) or at a slightly different time (three minutes later when the wind died down)?
In order to answer such questions, Lewis says it is necessary to Students of Today with Essay say how much of a change or a delay it takes for an event to become an altogether different event, rather than a different version of the same event. Capital? (Lewis sometimes discusses this issue as the question of how fragile events are: a modally fragile event is one which cannot occur in a different manner or at College Disabilities Essay a different time from its actual manner and time of occurrence. Of The? See Lewis 1986b.) The problem, as he sees it, is that there is no unique principled way in which we do this: there is linguistic indeterminancy about what event nominals refer to. He writes: “We have not made up our minds: and College Disabilities Essay if we presuppose sometimes one answer and conquer sometimes another answer, we are entirely within our linguistic rights. This is itself a big problem for a counterfactual analysis of causation, quite apart from the problem of preemption.” (2000, p.186) However, if we recognise that the cause-end of causal statements displays contrast-relativity as well as the effect-end, we can obviate the Students of Today with Essay need to mixed advantages provide an account of the identity of events under counterfactual changes. For example, suppose we are interested in why the Disabilities forest fire took one path P 1 rather than another path P 2 . Variation in the starting point of the fire will be relevant to this difference. So it would be appropriate to say that the camper's lighting the fire in theme of kite location L 1 rather another location L 2 caused the forest fire to take path P 1 rather than P 2 . On the other hand, suppose that we are interested in why the forest occurred rather did not occur at all. Variation in College Students with Essay the starting point of the is 15th fire will probably not be relevant to of Today with Disabilities this contrast. Rather the appropriate causal statement will be one that says the camper's lighting the fire (in some or other location) rather his not lighting it (in any location) caused the fire to occur rather than not to occur. Such causal statements reveal the relevant contrasts at both the cause- and the effect-ends. What? Sometimes, such contrasts are indicated by College Students with Essay the use of emphasis as in the march of the penguins “The fire's starting in location L 1 caused the College Students Disabilities fire to take path P 1 ”.
But more often than not the surface form of causal statements does not disclose the contrasts that are intended and they must be supplied by context. This fact means that there may be linguistic indeterminacy in causal statements. But it is not indeterminacy about the reference of Capital Essay event nominals, but rather about the situations that are intended as contrasts for the cause and the effect. Once these are resolved the linguistic indeterminacy is resolved as well. The contrast-relativity of Students with Disabilities causal statements, if it is genuine, has significant implications for gamestop hq phone, the form that a counterfactual analysis should take. Those who accept the arguments above for the context-relativity of causal statements think that the canonical form of causal statements is “ c rather than c* caused e rather than e* ”, where the contrast situations c* and College Students of Today Essay e* are supplied by context. Gamestop Number? This suggests that the definition of causal dependence should not be formulated in terms of the counterfactual “If c had not occurred, e would not have occurred”, but the more specific counterfactual “If c* had occurred instead of c , then e* would have occurred instead of e ”. College Students Of Today Disabilities Essay? This formulation has several advantages over the old formulation. (For discussion of this point see Schaffer 2005. For criticisms see Steglich-Petersen 2012; Reiss 2013) Its chief advantage from the point of our discussion is that it obviates the need for the counterfactual theory to provide an account of the identity of events under hypothetical changes. With this new formulation, there is no need to work out whether c* and e* are identical with, or different from, c and Capital Essay e ,respectively. It is simply stipulated on the basis of contextual considerations that c* and e* are intended to College Students of Today Disabilities Essay act as contrasts to c and e . There have been several important critical discussions of Lewis's explanation of the temporal asymmetry of causation. (See Elga 2000; Frisch 2007; Hausman 1998: Chap.
6; Horwich 1987: Chap. 10; Loewer 2007; Kutach 2013: Chaps. 3-7; Price 1996: Chap. 6.; Price and Weslake 2009) One kind of number criticism has focused on the psychological implausibility of Lewis's explanation. (See Horwich 1987.) Recall that the with Essay explanation appeals, on the one hand, to a system of weighted respects of similarity between possible worlds that is delivered by a priori conceptual analysis and, on the other hand, to an asymmetry of overdetermination that is claimed to be a contingent a posteriori truth about the actual world. The two-part explanation is mixed research supposed to employ facts that are sufficiently well known to play a role in the explanation of our linguistic use of counterfactuals. However, it is psychologically implausible that the intricate system of weighted respects of similarity involving comparison of miracles of different sizes could capture the intuitive similarity relation used in counterfactual reasoning. Why should we have developed such a baroque notion of College of Today with Disabilities Essay similarity?
Moreover, the asymmetry of overdetermination is an esoteric scientific hypothesis that is not common knowledge to everyone using counterfactuals. So it is very unlikely that this hypothesis could account for ordinary speakers' mastery of the temporal asymmetry of counterfactuals. (For Lewis's reply to this criticism see Postscript E to “Counterfactual Dependence and Time's Arrow” in his (1986a, p. 66).) Another criticism is that the asymmetry of overdetermination does not exist in Capital vs. Labor the form required to Students with Disabilities support Lewis's explanation of the temporal asymmetry of counterfactuals. Vs. Labor? Lewis's idea is that any event e has many postdeterminants and few predeterminants, where a predeterminant or postdeterminant of an event is a set of conditions that are jointly sufficient, given the laws of nature, for the occurrence of the event. But if Lewis is assuming that the laws involved are like those of classical mechanics, he is mistaken on this score. For a theory that is time symmetric and deterministic in both the forward and of Today Essay backward direction will imply that for any local event e and any time t , there is a unique set of conditions obtaining at t that are necessary and sufficient, given the command conquer generals laws, for the occurrence of the event e . The conditions may not be localized conditions that are typically regarded as events, but nonetheless they will qualify as predeterminant or postdeterminants. For example, consider Popper's example of the wave spreading out from a point source. If there is a process that postdetermines what happens at the point at which the wave is emitted, there is Disabilities Essay also a process, perhaps a very unlocalized process, that predetermines this. Pace Popper and Lewis, both processes are equally likely; and the march whether they occur depends on Students of Today with, the boundary conditions of the hq phone system. (For discussion of this point see Arntzenius 1993; Frisch 2005; North 2003; Price 1996. Also see the entry “Thermodynamic Asymmetry in Time”.)
A related criticism concerns the asymmetry of College with miracles that is central to Lewis's account of the temporal asymmetry of causation. The asymmetry of miracles consists in the fact that a miracle that realises a counterfactual antecedent about particular facts at time t by having a possible world diverge from the actual world just before the time t is smaller and less diverse than a miracle that realises the same counterfactual antecedent and vs. Labor makes a possible world converge to the actual world after the time t . Adam Elga (2000) has argued that the asymmetry of College Students of Today with miracles does not hold in many cases. Elga's argument proceeds by way of an example: Gretta cracks an penguins egg into a hot frying pan at 8:00am and at 8:05am the egg is cooked. Consider the process that occurs in the period from 8:00am to 8:05am, run backwards in time: a cooked egg sits in the frypan; it coalesces into a raw egg and leaps upward; and Students a shell closes around it. The laws of thermodynamics allows that this process is physically possible but extremely rare. These laws also state that the process is very sensitive in its initial conditions: even the slightest changes in the molecules making up the state of the cooked egg would result in the process evolving in is 15th amendment such a way that the cooked egg continues to sit in the pan rather than coalescing into College of Today with Disabilities Essay a raw egg and leaping upwards. But this is, Elga points out, exactly the kind of change that would make for theme of kite runner, a “convergence miracle”. Take the state of the actual world at 8:05am, holding fixed its future after this point; make some small changes to the molecules making up this state; and then run the laws of thermodynamics backwards in of Today Disabilities Essay time, and we will almost certainly arrive at theme a state in which the egg sits in the pan growing colder.
This state will be one in Students Disabilities which Gretta does not crack the egg. The small change in the state of the actual world at 8:05am is a “convergence miracle” that yields a possible world that realises the counterfactual proposition that Gretta does not crack the egg at 8:00am while holding fixed the conquer generals actual future after 8:05am. But this miracle is not the large, diverse miracle that Lewis claims a convergence miracle would have to be. As we have seen, Lewis builds transitivity into causation by defining it in terms of chains of causal dependence. The transitivity of causation fits with some of our explanatory practices.
For example, historians wishing to explain some significant historical event will trace the College Students of Today Essay explanation back through a number of Capital vs. Labor causal links, concluding that the event at College Students Essay the beginning of the methods research causal chain is responsible for the event being explained. On the other hand, a number of counter-examples have been presented which cast doubt on transitivity. (Lewis 2004a presents a short catalogue of these counterexamples.) Here is with Disabilities a sample of two counterexamples. First, an example due to Ned Hall (2004). A person is walking along a mountain trail, when a boulder high above is conquer generals dislodged and comes careering down the mountain slopes. The walker notices the boulder and ducks at the appropriate time. The careering boulder causes the walker to duck and this, in turn, causes his continued stride. With Disabilities? (This second causal link involves double prevention : the of the penguins duck prevents the collision between walker and College of Today Essay boulder which, had it occurred, would have prevented the walker's continued stride.) However, the careering boulder is the sort of what thing that would prevent the walker's continued stride and so it seems counterintuitive to Students of Today Disabilities say that it causes the stride. Second, an Essay example due to Douglas Ehring (1987). Jones puts some potassium salts into a hot fire.
Because potassium compounds produce a purple flame when heated, the College of Today with Disabilities flame changes to a purple colour, though everything else remains the same. The purple flame ignites some flammable material nearby. Here we judge that putting the potassium salts in the fire caused the purple flame, which in turn caused the flammable material to ignite. But it seems implausible to judge that putting the the march of the potassium salts in the fire caused the flammable material to ignite. Various replies have been made to these counterexamples. The second counterexample seems the most easily deflected. For example, Maslen (2004), who endorses the contrast-relativity of causal statements, has argued that this example is misdiagnosed as a counterexample to transitivity, as the of Today with Essay contrast situation at the effect-end of the first causal statement does not match up with the contrast situation at the cause-end of the second causal statement. Thus, the first causal statement should be interpreted as saying that Jones's putting potassium salts in the fire rather not doing so caused the flame to turn purple rather than yellow ; but the second causal statement should be interpreted as saying that the purple fire's occurring rather than not occurring caused the conquer generals flammable material to ignite rather not to ignite. Where there is a mismatch of this kind, we do not have a genuine counterexample to transitivity.
L. Paul (2004) offers a similar diagnosis of the second example, though her diagnosis proceeds in terms of event aspects, which she takes to be causation's primary relata. She argues similarly that there is mismatch between the event aspect that is the effect of the first causal link (the flame's being a purple colour) and the event aspect that is the cause of the second causal link (the flame's touching the flammable material). The first example cannot be handled in College of Today Disabilities Essay the same way. Some defenders of transitivity have replied that our intuitions about the intransitivity of causation in these examples are misleading. For instance, Lewis (2004a) points out that the runner counterexamples to College of Today Disabilities transitivity typically involve a structure in runner which a c -type event generally prevents an Essay e -type but in generals the particular case the Students of Today with Disabilities c -event actually causes another event that counters the threat and causes the e -event. If we mix up questions of what is generally conducive to what, with questions about what caused what in this particular case, he says, we may think that it is conquer reasonable to deny that c causes e . But if we keep the Students Disabilities focus sharply on the particular case, we must insist that c does in fact cause e . The debate about the theme transitivity of causation is not easily settled, partly because it is tied up with the College Students Disabilities Essay issue of how it is Essay best for a counterfactual theory to College Students of Today Essay deal with examples of preemption. As we have seen, Lewis's counterfactual theory relies on the transitivity of causation to handle cases of preemption. If such cases could be handled in some other way, that would take some of the theoretical pressure off the theory, allowing it concede the amendment persuasive counterexamples to transitivity without succumbing to the difficulties posed by preemption. (For more on this point see Hitchcock 2001.
For an extensive discussion of the College of Today Disabilities issues around transitivity see Paul and Hall: Chap. 5.) As we have seen, Lewis employs his strategy of defining causation in terms of chains of causal dependence not only to Essay make causation transitive, but also to deal with preemption examples. However, there are preemption examples that this strategy cannot deal with satisfactorily. Difficulties concerning preemption have proven to be the of Today with Disabilities biggest bugbear for theme of kite, Lewis's theory.(Paul and Hall 2013: Chap 3 contains an extensive discussion of the Students Disabilities Essay problems posed by preemption and other kinds of redundant causation for counterfactual theories.) In his (1986c), Lewis distinguishes cases of mixed advantages early and late preemption . In early preemption examples, the Students of Today Essay process running from the preempted alternative is cut short before the main process running from the preempting cause has gone to completion. The example of the hq phone two assassins, given above, is an example of Students Essay this sort. The March Of The Penguins? The theory of causation in terms of chains of causal dependence can handle this sort of example.
In contrast, cases of late preemption are ones in which the process running from the preempted cause is cut short only after the College of Today Disabilities Essay main process has gone to completion and brought about the effect. The following is an example of late preemption due to Hall (2004). Billy and Suzy throw rocks at a bottle. Suzy throws first so that her rock arrives first and shatters the glass. Without Suzy's throw, Billy's throw would have shattered the bottle. However, Suzy's throw is the actual cause of the shattered bottle, while Billy's throw is merely a preempted potential cause. This is a case of late preemption because the alternative process (Billy's throw) is cut short after the main process (Suzy's throw) has actually brought about the effect. Lewis's theory cannot explain the judgement that Suzy's throw was the the march actual cause of the shattering of the bottle. For there is no causal dependence between Suzy's throw and the shattering, since even if Suzy had not thrown her rock, the bottle would have shattered due to Billy's throw. Nor is there a chain of with Essay stepwise dependences running cause to effect, because there is no event intermediate between Suzy's throw and the shattering that links them up into a chain of dependences.
Take, for instance, Suzy's rock in mid-trajectory. Certainly, this event depends on Suzy's initial throw, but the problem is theme of kite that the shattering of the bottle does not depend on it, because even without it the bottle would still have shattered because of Billy's throw. To be sure, the bottle shattering that would have occurred without Suzy's throw would be different from the bottle shattering that actually occurred with Suzy's throw. For a start, it would have occurred later. This observation suggests that one solution to the problem of late preemption might be to insist that the events involved should be construed as fragile events. Accordingly, it will be true rather than false that if Suzy had not thrown her rock, then the actual bottle shattering, taken as a fragile event with an essential time and of Today with Disabilities Essay manner of occurrence, would not have occurred. Lewis himself does not endorse this response on the grounds that a uniform policy of construing events as fragile would go against our usual practices, and would generate many spurious causal dependences. For example, suppose that a poison kills its victim more slowly and painfully when taken on a full stomach. Then, the victim's eating dinner before he drinks the poison would count as a cause of his death since the time and manner of the death depend on the eating of the dinner. (For discussion of the vs. Labor limitations of this response see Lewis 1986c, 2000.) When we turn from preemption examples involving deterministic causation to those involving chancy causation, we see that the problems for Lewis's theory multiply.
One particularly recalcitrant problem is described in Menzies 1989. (See also Woodward 1990.) Suppose that two systems can produce the same effect, perhaps at the same time and in Disabilities Essay the same manner. (It does not matter whether this is an of the penguins example of early or late preemption.) However, one system is Students with Disabilities Essay much more reliable than the other. Command Conquer? The reliable system starts and, left to itself, will very probably produce the effect. But you do not leave it to itself. You throw a switch that shuts down the reliable system and of Today Disabilities turns on gamestop hq phone number, the unreliable one. As luck would have it, the unreliable system works and brings about the effect. This kind of College Disabilities example presents a problem for mixed research advantages, the probabilistic generalisation of the counterfactual theory because the College Students of Today with Essay preempting actual cause decreases the chance of the effect while the preempted potential cause increases its chance. In addition to the problem of explaining how the preempting cause qualifies as a cause when the effect does not causally depend on it, the probabilistic counterfactual theory faces the problem of explaining how the preempted cause is not really a cause when the effect does causally depend on it.(Examples of runner this kind have been the subject of extensive discussion in the context of both counterfactual and probabilistic theories of causation. Students Of Today With? For discussions about how best to deal with them within theories admitting of indeterminism, see Barker 2004; Beebee 2004; Dowe 2000, 2004; Hitchcock 2004; Kvart 2004; Noordhof 1999, 2004; Ramachandran 1997, 2004.) In this section we shall consider some recent developments of the counterfactual approach to causation, which have been motivated by the desire to overcome the deficiencies in Lewis's 1973 theory, especially with respect to preemption. 4.1 Lewis's 2000 Theory 4.2 Causation as Intrinsic Relation 4.3 The Structural Equations Framework.
In an what amendment attempt to Disabilities Essay deal with the various problems facing his 1973 theory, Lewis developed a new version of the generals counterfactual theory, which he first presented in his Whitehead Lectures at College Students of Today with Essay Harvard University in March 1999. (A shortened version of the lectures appeared as his (2000). The full lectures are published as his (2004a).) Counterfactuals play a central role in the new theory, as in command generals the old. But the College Students with Disabilities counterfactuals it employs do not simply state dependences of number whether one event occurs on whether another event occurs. The counterfactuals state dependences of whether , when , and how one event occurs on whether , when , and how another event occurs. A key idea in the formulation of these counterfactuals is that of an alteration of an with Disabilities event. This is an actualised or unactualised event that occurs at a slightly different time or in a slightly different manner from the given event. An alteration is, by definition, a very fragile event that could not occur at a different time, or in a different manner without being a different event. Lewis intends the terminology to be neutral on the issue of whether an alteration of an event is a version of the same event or a numerically different event.
The central notion of the new theory is that of influence. Where one event influences another, there is a pattern of counterfactual dependence of whether, when, and how upon whether, when, and how. As before, causation is defined as an ancestral relation. One of the points Lewis advances in favour of this new theory is that it handles cases of penguins late as well as early pre-emption. (The theory is restricted to deterministic causation and Students with Disabilities so does not address the example of probabilistic preemption described in section 3.4.) Reconsider, for instance, the the march penguins example of late preemption involving Billy and College Students of Today with Disabilities Essay Suzy throwing rocks at a bottle. The theory is supposed to explain why Suzy's throw, and not Billy's throw, is the command conquer generals cause of the shattering of the bottle. College Of Today With Essay? If we take an generals alteration in which Suzy's throw is of Today slightly different (the rock is lighter, or she throws sooner), while holding fixed Billy's throw, we find that the shattering is different too. Conquer Generals? But if we make similar alterations to Billy's throw while holding Suzy's throw fixed, we find that the shattering is unchanged. Another point in favour of the new theory is that it handles a type of preemption Lewis that have come to be called trumping . Disabilities Essay? (Trumping was first described by Jonathan Schaffer(2000).) Lewis gives an example involving a major and a sergeant who are shouting orders at the soldiers. The major and sergeant simultaneously shout “Advance”; the soldiers hear them both and advance. Since the soldiers obey the superior officer, they advance because the major orders them to, not because the generals sergeant does.
So the major's command preempts or trumps the sergeant's. Where other theories have difficulty with trumping cases, Lewis's argues his new theory handles them with ease. Of Today Essay? Altering the major's command while holding fixed the sergeant's, the soldier's response would be correspondingly altered. In contrast, altering the sergeant's command, while holding fixed the conquer generals major's, would make no difference at all. There is, however, some reason for scepticism about whether the new theory handles the examples of late preemption and of Today with Disabilities trumping completely satisfactorily.
In the example of late preemption, Billy's throw has some degree of influence on the shattering of the bottle. For if Billy had thrown his rock earlier (so that it preceded Suzy's throw) and in a different manner, the bottle would have shattered earlier and in a different manner. Likewise, the sergeant's command has some degree of influence on the soldiers' advance in that if the sergeant had shouted earlier than the major with a different command, the what is 15th soldiers would have obeyed his order. In response to these points, Lewis must say that these alterations of the events are too-distant to be considered relevant. But some metric of distance in alterations is required, since it seems that similar alterations of Suzy's throw and College Students the major's command are relevant to their having causal influence. It has also been argued that the command new theory generates a great number of spurious instances of causation. (For discussion see Collins 2000; Kvart 2001.) The theory implies that any event that influences another event to Disabilities Essay a certain degree counts as one of its causes. But common sense is more discriminating about causes. To take an example of Jonathan Bennett (1987): rain in December delays a forest fire; if there had been no December rain, the forest would have caught fire in January rather than when it actually did in theme of kite runner February. The rain influences the fire with respect to its timing, location, rapidity, and so forth.
But common sense denies that the rain was a cause of the College Students of Today fire , though it allows that it is a cause of the delay in the fire . What Is 15th? Similarly, in the example of the poison victim discussed above, the victim's ingesting poison on College Students with Disabilities Essay, a full stomach influences the time and manner of his death (making it a slow and painful death), but common sense refuses to countenance his eating dinner as a cause of his death , though it may countenance it as a cause of its being a slow and painful death . Pace Lewis, common sense does not take anything that affects the time and manner of an event to what be a cause of the event simpliciter . 4.2 Causation as Intrinsic Relation. One way of treating preemption that has been recently discussed departs from a purely counterfactual analysis of causation. It has been argued that preemption examples highlight the intuitive idea that causation is an intrinsic relation between events, which is to say it is a local relation depending on the intrinsic properties of the events and what goes on between them, and Students of Today with Essay nothing else. The proposed treatments of preemption marry this intuitive idea with a crucial deployment of counterfactuals. At one time Lewis himself resorted to this way of treating late preemption examples when he invoked the notion of quasi-dependence . (See his (1986c).) To explain this notion consider a case that resembles the case of theme of kite Billy and College with Essay Suzy throwing rocks at a bottle.
Suzy throws a rock and shatters the gamestop bottle in exactly the same way in which she does in the original case. But in this case Billy and his rock are entirely absent. Lewis argued that since the process in Students of Today Essay the original case and the process in the comparison case are intrinsically alike (and also obey the same laws), both or neither must be causal. However, the comparison process is Capital vs. Labor Essay surely a causal process since, thanks to College Students of Today Disabilities Essay Billy's absence, it exhibits a causal dependence. Accordingly, the process in the original case must be a causal process too, even though it does not exhibit a causal dependence. In such examples Lewis has said that the actual process that does not exhibit causal dependence is, nonetheless, causal by courtesy: it exhibits quasi-dependence in virtue of its intrinsic resemblance to the causal process in the comparison case.
A related idea is pursued in Menzies (1996; 1999). Menzies argues that there is an element in number our concept of causation that resists capture in purely counterfactual terms. This element consists in the idea that causation is a structural relation that underlies and supports causal dependences. This idea can be captured by treating the concept of causation as the concept of a theoretical entity. Applying a standard treatment of theoretical concepts, he argues that causation should be defined as the Students with Disabilities Essay unique occupant of a certain characteristic role given by the platitudes of the folk theory of causation. One platitude is that causation is an of the penguins intrinsic relation between events. Another platitude is that it is typically , but not invariably, accompanied by causal dependence.
Accordingly, causation is defined in the following way: On this account, causation is not constituted by Students of Today with Disabilities Essay causal dependence. It is, in fact, a distinct relation for of kite runner, which causal dependence is, at best, a defeasible marker. The relation may be identified a posteriori with some physically specifiable relation such as energy-momentum transfer. It may, indeed, be identified with different relations in different possible worlds. This definition is supposed to explain common sense intuitions about preemption examples.
For example, Suzy's throw, and not Billy's throw, caused the shattering of the bottle, because the intrinsic relation that typically accompanies causal dependence connects Suzy's throw, but not Billy's throw, with the shattering of the bottle. Lewis later rejected the approach to College of Today with preemption via quasi-dependence in favour of his 2000 theory in terms of influence. In Lewis 2004a and 2004b, he claims that theories of causation as an intrinsic relation do not do justice to is 15th amendment the full range of our intuitions about causation. (For related points see Hall 2002, 2004.) He offers several reasons, but one reason will suffice for our discussion. The intuition that causation is an intrinsic matter does not apply to cases of double prevention. Suppose that billiard balls 1 and 2 collide, preventing ball 1 from continuing on of Today with, its way and Essay hitting ball 3. If the collision of balls 1 and 3 had occurred, ball 3 would not have later collided with ball 4. So, we have double prevention: the collision of balls 1 and 2 prevented the collision of balls 1 and 3, which would have prevented the later collision of balls 3 and College Students Disabilities 4. Here it seems reasonable to say that the penguins collision of balls 1 and 2 was a cause of the College Disabilities Essay later collision of balls 3 and 4. Lewis observes that the causation in such cases of double prevention is partly an Capital vs. Labor extrinsic matter. If there had been some other obstruction that would have stopped ball 1 from hitting ball 3, the collision of 3 and 4 would not have depended on the collision of 1 and 2. Students With Disabilities Essay? Moreover, he notes that much of the spatiotemporal region between the collision of balls 1 and hq phone 2 and the collision of balls 3 and 4 is simply empty so that there is College Students of Today with Essay no chain of what amendment events to serve as a connecting process between cause and effect. The intuition that causation is an intrinsic relation does not apply in this case. More generally, he argues that theories of College with Disabilities Essay causation as an intrinsic relation are overhasty generalisations of one specific kind of causation, and they fail to do justice to our intuitions about causation involving absences (as causes, effects or intermediaries). 4.3 The Structural Equations Framework.
A number of theme of kite runner contemporary philosophers (Hitchcock 2001, 2007; Woodward 2003; Woodward and Hitchcock 2003) have explored an alternative counterfactual approach to causation that employs the structural equations framework. This framework, which has been used in the social sciences and biomedical sciences since the 1930s and 1940s, received its state-of-the-art formulation in Judea Pearl's landmark 2000 book. College Students Of Today Disabilities Essay? Hitchcock and Woodward acknowledge their debt to methods research advantages Pearl's work and to College with Disabilities Essay the related work on causal Bayes nets by Peter Spirtes, Clark Glymour, and Richard Scheines (1993). However, while Pearl and amendment Spirtes, Glymour and Scheines focus on College Essay, issues to Essay do with causal discovery and inference, Woodward and Hitchcock focus on College Students with, issues of the meaning of causal claims. For this reason, their formulations of the structural equations framework are better suited to the purposes of this discussion.
The exposition of this section follows that of Hitchcock 2001, in particular. While philosophical work using this framework has only just begun, it would seem that this framework looks likely to rival Lewis's framework in terms of its theoretical richness and command fruitfulness. The structural equations framework describes the causal structure of a system in terms of a causal model of the system, which is identified as an ordered pair V , E , where V is a set of variables and E a set of structural equations stating deterministic relations among the variables. (We shall confine our attention in this section to College Disabilities Essay deterministic systems.) The variables in V describe the different possible states of the the march penguins system in question. While they can take any number of values, in the simple examples to be considered here the variables are typically binary variables that take the College Students Essay value 1 if some event occurs and the value 0 if the event does not occur. For example, let us formulate a causal model to describe the system exemplified in the example of late preemption to do with Billy and Suzy's rock throwing. We might describe the system using the following set of variables: BT = 1 if Billy throws a rock, 0 otherwise; ST = 1 if Suzy throws a rock, 0 otherwise; BH = 1 if Billy's rock hits the bottle, 0 otherwise; SH = 1 if Suzy's rock hits the bottle, 0 otherwise; BS = 1 if the bottle shatters, 0 otherwise. Here the variables are binary. But a different model might have used many-valued variables to represent the different ways in which Billy and Suzy threw their rocks, their rocks hit the bottle, or the bottle shattered.
The structural equations in Capital vs. Labor a model describe the College of Today with Disabilities Essay dynamical evolution of the system being modelled. There is a structural equation for each variable. The form taken by a structural equation for a variable depends on which kind of gamestop hq phone number variable it is. The structural equation for an exogenous variable (the values of which are determined by factors outside of the model) takes the form of Y = y , which simply states the actual value of the College Students with variable. The structural equation for an endogenous variable (the values of which are determined by factors within the model) states how the value of the variable is determined by the values of the other variables.
It takes the form: What does this structural equation mean? There are in fact competing interpretations. Pearl (2000) regards the structural equations as the conceptual primitives of his framework, describing them as representing the basic mechanisms of the system under investigation. However, for the purposes of exposition, it is more convenient to follow the interpretation of Woodward (2003) and Hitchcock (2001), who think of the structural equations as expressing certain basic counterfactuals of the following form:
As this form of counterfactual suggests, the structural equations are to runner be read from right to left: the antecedent of the College Disabilities counterfactual states possible values of the mixed methods research variables X 1 through to X n and the consequent states the corresponding value of the with Disabilities endogenous variable Y . There is a counterfactual of this kind for every combination of possible values of the gamestop hq phone variables X 1 through to X n . It is important to note that a structural equation of this kind is College not, strictly speaking, an identity since there is a right-to-left asymmetry built into it. This asymmetry corresponds to the asymmetry of non-backtracking counterfactuals. Command Conquer Generals? For example, supposing that the actual situation is one in which neither Suzy nor Billy throws a rock so the bottle does not shatter, the Students of Today with non-backtracking counterfactual “If either Suzy or Billy had thrown a rock, the amendment bottle would have shattered” is true. But the counterfactual “If the bottle had shattered, either Suzy or Billy would have thrown a rock” is false. As an illustration, consider the set of of Today with Disabilities Essay structural equations that might be used to model the late preemption example of Billy and Suzy. Given the theme of kite variables listed above, the structural equations might be stated as follows: In these equations logical symbols are used to represent mathematical functions on binary variables: X = 1 − X ; X v Y = max X , Y ; X Y = min X , Y . The first two equations simply state the actual values of the exogenous variables ST and BT . The third equation encodes two counterfactuals, one for each possible value of ST . It states that if Suzy threw a rock, her rock hit the bottle; and if she didn't throw a rock, her rock didn't hit the bottle. The fourth equation encodes four counterfactuals, one for each possible combination of values for BT and. SH . It states that if Billy threw a rock and Suzy's rock didn't hit the bottle, Billy's rock hit the bottle; but didn't do so if one or more of these conditions was not met.
The fifth equation encodes four counterfactuals, one for each possible combination of Students of Today Disabilities values for SH and research advantages BH . It states that if one or other (or possibly both) of Suzy's rock or Billy's rock hit the bottle, the bottle shattered; but if neither rock hit the College Students with bottle, the theme bottle didn't shatter. The structural equations above can be represented in terms of a directed graph . The variables in the set V are represented as nodes in the graph. An arrow directed from one node X to another Y represents the fact that the variable X appears on the right-hand side of the structural equation for Y . In this case, X is said to be a parent of Essay Y . Exogenous variables are represented by nodes that have no arrows directed towards them. A directed path from Capital vs. Labor Essay, X to with Disabilities Essay Y in a graph is a sequence of arrows that connect X with Y . The directed graph of the model described above of Billy and Suzy example is depicted in Figure 1 below: The arrows in this figure tell us that the bottle's shattering is a function of of kite runner Suzy's rock hitting the College Disabilities bottle and Billy's rock hitting the bottle; that Billy's rock hitting the bottle is a function of what is 15th amendment Billy's throwing a rock and Students Disabilities Suzy's rock hitting the bottle; and that Suzy's rock hitting the bottle is a function of her throwing the vs. Labor Essay rock. As we have seen, the structural equations directly encode some counterfactuals. However, some counterfactuals that are not directly encoded can be derived from them. College Students Of Today Essay? Consider, for example, the counterfactual “If Suzy's rock had not hit the bottle, it would still have shattered”.
As a matter of fact, Suzy's rock did hit the of kite runner bottle. But we can determine what would have happened if it hadn't done so, by replacing the structural equation for the endogenous variable SH with the equation SH = 0, keeping all the other equations unchanged. College Of Today Essay? So, instead of having its value determined in the ordinary way by command conquer generals the variable ST , the value of SH is set “miraculously”. College Students With Disabilities Essay? Pearl describes this as a “surgical intervention” that changes the value of the what amendment variable. In terms of College of Today its graphical representation,this amounts to wiping out the mixed methods research advantages arrow from the variable ST to the variable SH and treating SH as if it were an exogenous variable. After this operation, the value of the variable BS can be computed and College of Today Disabilities Essay shown to be equal to 1: given that Billy had thrown his rock, his rock would have hit the bottle and is 15th shattered it. So this particular counterfactual is true. This procedure for evaluating counterfactuals has direct affinities with Lewis's non-backtracking interpretation of counterfactuals: the surgical intervention that sets the variable SH at its hypothetical value but keeps all other equations unchanged is similar in its effects to Lewis's small miracle that realises the counterfactual antecedent but preserves the past. In general, to evaluate a counterfactual, say “If it were the case that X 1 ,,X n , then ”, one replaces the original equation for College with, each variable X i with a new equation stipulating its hypothetical value,while keeping the other equations unchanged; then one computes the values for the remaining variables to see whether they make the consequent true. This technique of replacing an hq phone number equation with a hypothetical value set by a “surgical intervention” enables us to capture the College Students with Disabilities Essay notion of counterfactual dependence between variables:
How does the structural equations framework deal with examples of late pre-emption that pose such problems for Lewis's counterfactual theory? Can this framework deliver the intuitively correct verdicts in the example about Suzy and Billy? Halpern and Pearl (2001,2005), Hitchcock (2001),and Woodward (2003a) all give roughly the same treatment of examples of late preemption. The key to their treatment is the employment of a certain procedure for testing the existence of a causal relation. The procedure is to look for an intrinsic process connecting the putative cause and effect; suppress the theme influence of their non-intrinsic surroundings by “freezing” those surroundings as they actually are; and then subject the putative cause to a counterfactual test. So, for example, to test whether the variable Suzy's throwing a rock caused the bottle to shatter, we should examine the process running from ST through SH to BS ; hold fix at its actual value the variable BH which is extrinsic to this process; and then wiggle the variable ST to College of Today Essay see if it changes the value of BS . The last steps involve evaluating the mixed counterfactual “If Suzy hadn't thrown a rock and Billy's rock hadn't hit the bottle, the bottle would not have shattered”. It is easy to College of Today with Disabilities see that this counterfactual is true. In contrast, when we carry out number a similar procedure to test whether Billy's throwing a rock caused the bottle to shatter,we are required to consider the College Students Disabilities counterfactual “If Billy hadn't thrown his rock and Suzy's rock had hit the bottle, the bottle would not shattered”. This counterfactual is false. It is the difference in the truth-value of these two counterfactuals that explains the fact that it was Suzy's rock throwing, and not Billy's, that caused the bottle to what is 15th amendment shatter. (A similar theory is developed in Yablo 2002 and 2004 though not in the structural equations framework.) Hitchcock (2001) presents a useful regimentation of this reasoning.
He defines a route between two variables X and Z in College Students with the set V to be an ordered sequence of of the variables X , Y 1 ,, Y n , Z such each variable in the sequence is in V and is a parent of its successor in the sequence. A variable Y is intermediate between X and Z if and only if it belongs to some route between X and Z . Students Of Today With? Then he introduces the theme of kite runner new concept of an active causal route: This definition generalises the informal idea sketched in the example of Suzy and Billy. There is an active causal route going from Suzy's throwing her rock through her rock hitting the bottle to the bottle shattering: when we hold fixed Billy's rock not hitting the bottle, which is the actual value of the only intermediate variable BH that is not on this route, we see that the bottle's shattering counterfactually depends on Suzy's throwing her rock. There is, however, no active causal route between Billy's throwing his rock and the bottle shattering. In terms of the notion of an active causal route, Hitchcock defines actual or token causation in the following terms: A crucial notion in this definition is that of “an appropriate” model. It would be undesirable to have multiple structures of causal relations being posited by different models willy-nilly. So Hitchcock insists causal relations are revealed only by “appropriate models”.
He mentions a number of criteria for appraising whether a model is appropriate, the most important one being that the structural equations posited by the model must not imply any false counterfactual. In order to deal with examples of symmetric overdetermination, Hitchcock (2001) defines a notion of a weakly active route , the essential idea being that there is a weakly active route between X and Y just when Y counterfactually depends on X under the freezing of Students Disabilities some possible, not necessarily actual, values of the variables that are not on the route from X to Y . As we shall not be considering any examples of oversymmetric overdetermination, we shall focus on the stronger notion of an active causal route. This account of causation differs from Lewis's accounts in a number of respects. One difference is that the account does not appeal to the transitivity of causation to deal with preemption examples, in contrast to Lewis's accounts, both early and late. Hitchcock (2001) is at pains to stress that the structural equations framework described above allows for failures of transitivity. Theme? Another difference between the accounts is that the structural equations account appeals to special counterfactuals with complex antecedents in order to Students Essay handle preemption examples. These counterfactuals describe what would happen if a causal variable were changed when certain other variables are held fixed at their actual values. (Hitchcock calls these “explicitly nonforetracking counterfactuals”.) Lewis's accounts does not make use of such counterfactuals, relying as it does on counterfactuals with simple antecedents that describe single changes in the causal variables. The differences between the accounts should not, however, overshadow the similarities that also exist. Both accounts make central use of theme runner non-backtracking counterfactuals and they interpret these counterfactuals in roughly the same fashion. Setting aside complications to do with backwards causation, Lewis's account and the structural equations account have us evaluate a non-backtracking counterfactual in much the same way: we are to hold fixed the past history of the system, imagine that the College Students of Today with Disabilities Essay antecedent is realised “miraculously” by gamestop hq phone a surgical intervention from outside the system, and then consider how the new state of the system would evolve in conformity with the structural equations or laws of the system without any further interventions. How plausible is this new counterfactual approach to causation?
It is too early to say with any confidence, as the approach is still being developed. Nonetheless, some early problems have emerged. (See Hall 2007; Halpern and Pearl 2005; Halpern and Hitchcock forthcoming; Hitchcock 2007; Menzies 2004b; Weslake forthcoming.) Consider, for instance, the following example, which is of Today with Essay a variant of one described by Hitchcock (2007). An assassin puts poison in the king's coffee. The bodyguard responds by pouring an antidote in the king's coffee. If the bodyguard had not poured the antidote in the coffee, the king would have died. Capital Vs. Labor? On the Students with other hand, the antidote is fatal when taken by mixed itself; and if the poison had not been poured in College Students with Disabilities first, it would have killed the king. The poison and the antidote are both lethal when taken singly but neutralise each other when taken together. In fact, the king drinks the is 15th amendment coffee and survives. Suppose we model this scenario using the following variables: A = 1 if the assassin pours poison into the king's coffee, 0 otherwise; G = 1 if the bodyguard responds by pouring antidote into of Today with the coffee, 0 otherwise; S = 1 if the king survives, 0 otherwise. And also suppose that we employ these structural equations:
The directed graph for this model is depicted in Figure 2. Testing for is 15th, active causal processes, we can see that the process that goes directly from the assassin's pouring the poison in Students of Today with Disabilities Essay the coffee to the king's survival is active. Theme Of Kite? Holding fixed the fact that the bodyguard poured the lethal antidote into the coffee, we note that the king would not have survived if the Essay assassin had not put the poison in the coffee first. So the theory licenses the verdict that the assassin's pouring in the poison caused the king to survive. However, many regard this as a mistaken causal verdict: putting poison in the king's coffee is exactly the kind of thing that is likely to command kill the king. It might be argued that the causal verdict is justified in view of the fact that the assassin's action caused the of Today with Disabilities bodyguard's action, which in turn caused the king's survival. But this appeal to the transitivity of causation is not open to of kite runner the defenders of this theory, who deny the validity of transitivity.
One counterexample by itself is not enough to College Students with Disabilities Essay disprove the whole structural equations framework. Strictly speaking, it only casts doubt on the theory of causation that defines causation in terms of the presence of an active causal route. Of The Penguins? There are alternative definitions within the structural equations framework that might fare better. Students Of Today Essay? (See Halpern and Pearl 2005; Weslake forthcoming.) One possibility explored by several philosophers is to appeal to a distinction between what Hitchcock has called “default” and “deviant” values of variables.(See Hitchcock 2007.) The default value of some variable represents a normal or to-be-expected state of the system, whereas a deviant value represents an abnormal or unusual state of the system. The correlative notion of the default course of evolution for a system can be characterised as a temporally-ordered sequence of values that the variables in a model take when the default values of the exogenous variables are plugged into the structural equations of the model. Thus, if we set the value of the exogenous variable A in the example above at its default value 0 instead of its actual value 1, we can see that the scenario described above will evolve in the following way: the assassin doesn't put the poison in the coffee, the bodyguard doesn't put the antidote into the coffee, and the king survives. Now if we evaluate counterfactual dependences with counterfactuals centred on the default course of evolution rather than the actual course of evolution, we can see that the bodyguard's action counterfactually depends on research advantages, the assassin's action and the king's survival depends on the bodyguard's action, but the king's survival doesn't depend on the assassin's action. If counterfactual dependences centred on the default course of Students of Today with evolution are taken to indicate causal relations, these counterfactual dependences more accurately reflect our intuitive causal judgements. (For further discussion of this idea, see Hall 2007 and Menzies 2004b, 2007.) It remains to be seen whether the various attempts to augment the structural equations framework with a distinction between default and deviant values are successful or not. (For other attempts see Hitchcock 2007; and Halpern and Hitchcock forthcoming; Hitchcock and Knobe 2009. For a critical discussion of penguins these attempts see Schaffer 2013. For general discussion of the role of the College Students of Today with default/deviant distinction in causal judgements see Maudlin 2004.)
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